Macron’s Middle East flip-flop

PARIS — Just where does Emmanuel Macron stand on the Middle East?
As the French president prepares to host an international conference on the crisis in Lebanon, his zig-zag approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is causing some to question his effectiveness as a regional mediator.
“Some officials around the president are very pro-Israeli, others are pro-Palestinian,” said a former French diplomat. “Often it felt like the president said the last thing that was said to him,” he said.
France and Israel have a complex history dating to when the French and British empires carved up the Middle East after World War II.
And in recent years, and especially since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the subsequent war on Gaza, the country’s policy toward the region has been the subject of a tug of war, according to current and former French officials and diplomats interviewed for this article.
On one side is what they described as a pro-Israel group that calls itself the “neocons.” On the other, those more sensitive to the Palestinian cause.
The French president, they said, has flipped back and forth between the two sides.
Macron’s initial reaction to the horrors of the Oct. 7 attack was to vow “unreserved solidarity” with Israel. He even suggested putting together a coalition to fight Hamas, an idea that was immediately shot down by the international community.
In the year since, as the death toll in Gaza has grown, he has grown markedly more critical, but not consistently so.
“It fluctuates, and more than a year [after Oct. 7], it hasn’t changed,” said the former French diplomat. “I still don’t know what the president really thinks.”
In recent weeks, Macron has hardened his stance against Israel, trading barbs with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over civilian casualties and Israeli strikes against U.N. peacekeepers. The French president also called for Western countries to stop delivering weapons to Israel, two days before the anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks.
But when Netanyahu slapped back, Macron scrambled to patch things up, issuing a press release about France’s “unwavering” support for Israel’s security, while admitting differences of views.
Last week, the French president was quoted in the press as saying that Israel should not “ignore U.N. decisions” during a closed-door Cabinet meeting, in strongly-worded comments that were confirmed by his foreign minister. But on Thursday, he backtracked and accused ministers and the press of distorting his comments.
Officials chalked up the rapid swing to a lack of a solid policy toward the region.
Macron’s “convictions depend on who he talks to,” said a former French official who knows the region well. “When he is talking to emerging countries, he is pro-Palestinian; and when he talks to [Netanyahu], he’s all about the security of Israel.”
Asked at a press conference on Thursday whether his rapidly evolving comments damaged France’s influence in the region, Macron retorted that the situation was “complex enough” and that he “weighed up his words each time since the beginning.”
The French president’s wavering views reflect differences of opinion among officials in the ministry of foreign affairs and the Élysée’s so-called diplomatic cell, where the French president sets international policy.
France is home to the largest Muslim and Jewish communities in Europe, making it a delicate domestic political issue.
The foreign ministry’s North Africa and Middle East department (known as ANMO) has traditionally tended “to support the Palestinian cause, put pressure on Israel, and want to limit weapons deliveries to Israel,” said a second former French diplomat.
This school of thought peaked under former French President Jacques Chirac, who gained superstar status in the Arabic-speaking parts of the Middle East when he got into a dispute with Israeli security officials during a visit to Jerusalem in 1996.
More recently, the competing current known as the “neocons” has grown in influence under the presidencies of Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande and Emmanuel Macron.
According to Denis Bauchard, a former French ambassador to Jordan, the neocons were “dominant” in the cabinets of Catherine Colonna and Stéphane Séjourné, the foreign ministers who served between 2022 and 2024.
“[They] marginalized ANMO, which was dismissed as ‘the Arab street’ hostile to Israel,” said Bauchard.
According to Camille Lons, deputy head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, France’s “center of gravity has shifted towards a more pro-Israel position” in recent years.
Since the start of the latest round of hostilities, however, French policy has grown more critical of Israel, as the casualties have piled up in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people are estimated to have been killed, and as Israel has failed to rescue its hostages or strike a deal for a ceasefire.  
That shift took a sharper turn after Israel invaded Lebanon in September, a former French colony, where the offensive against the Hezbollah militant group has raised fears of a larger regional war.
The assault was a setback for Macron who had been trying to de-escalate the conflict. The Israeli premier launched the offensive just as Paris thought it was on the cusp of landing a 21-day cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel.
After the recent back and forth with Netanyahu, swings are likely to continue, the officials said. “There are pressures, counter-pressures in the foreign affairs ministry and at the Élysée,” said the first former French diplomat.
Macron’s Middle East “policy can change within the same day, depending on who has the president’s ear,” he said.